Geological records reveal that the earth has gone through several phases of climate change since prehistoric times, some of which have negatively impacted life on the planet. The most recent major climate change event was at the end of the last ice age which occurred close to twelve thousand years ago and resulted in rising water levels across the globe and may have been responsible for the several deluge stories from various ancient societies around the world including the biblical story of Noah’s flood.
The last ice age lasted for a little over a hundred thousand years. While scientists do not agree on what could have caused the climate to change and bring the ice age to an end, we are sure that the average global temperature of the earth increased at the time which caused large bodies of glaciers to melt and in turn raised the level of the ocean on a global scale with many coastal communities being submerged in the process.
With the benefit of the hindsight of the global cataclysm that occurred during the last climate change event, scientists became alarmed when they noticed a trend of increasing global temperature over the last couple of centuries.
A lot of research went into it and it was discovered that it was human activities have been the main driver of the global warming that we have been experiencing. Primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels (like coal, oil, and gas), which produce greenhouse gases and increase the level of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere.
As a result of extensive research carried out by scientists, it became obvious that we were responsible for global warming and if nothing serious was done about it, we might trigger another climate change and thus destroy our planet with our own hands.
With the increased awareness of what might befall our planet if we didn’t do something to reduce the quantity of greenhouse gases being released into our atmosphere which was increasing the global temperature, an agreement was signed by 154 states at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) informally known as the Earth Summit which was held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The treaty they signed came into force on March 21, 1994, with most countries committing to take practical steps to reduce their carbon footprint.
Prominent amongst the resolutions agreed on at the Earth Summit were to end our reliance on fossil fuels, more efficient use of energy, and adopting the use of renewable energy thus signaling the end to the use of fossil fuels that have energized the world for the past two hundred years.
With over 174,000 terawatts of solar radiation reaching the earth from the sun daily compared to our estimated global daily usage of 25,200 terawatts, it became obvious that solar energy was not only the most abundant source of energy on the planet, it was also safe for the planet. The only problem was how to harness and store it cost-effectively so it could be deployed for our daily use.
As a result of this, over the past thirty years, scientists have been very working to develop solar energy technology and in the past few years, a lot of remarkable progress has been made. In addition to that more efficient Electric Vehicles (EVs) are being developed across the world along with infrastructure to make them more convenient for people to use.
With the development of far more efficient Electric Vehicles, the European Union in February 2023, announced a ban on the sale of new fossil fuel-powered vehicles by 2035 to become carbon neutral by 2050. However, the ban doesn’t stop the use of existing fossil fuel vehicles and people will still be able to drive and purchase used fossil fuel-powered cars. Some Asian countries have also targeted similar dates for the ban on the sale of fossil fuel-powered vehicles while Volvo a European car manufacturer raised the bar further by announcing that it will stop the production of fossil fuel-powered cars by 2025.
While the United States of America has not formally announced a ban on the sale of fossil fuel-powered vehicles, some States in the country have announced plans to ban their sales while a lot is being done to promote the use of EVs. In 2023 an American-made EV Tesla, became the fastest-selling car in the world. The Model Y their bestselling model sold over 1.23 million units which was a 64% increase on the previous year’s sales.
With the moves being made to end the production of fossil fuel-powered vehicles in Europe, Asia, and America where almost 100% of the world’s vehicles are manufactured, it becomes inevitable that the days of fossil fuel as the world’s number one source of energy are numbered. As the change to the use of Electric Vehicles increases all over the world, the demand for the world’s number one selling commodity, crude oil is expected to drop significantly with a consequent effect on countries that depend on the resource as a major source of revenue.
As a result of this expected drop in the demand for crude oil in the near future, forward-thinking oil-producing countries have started diversifying their economies to make them less dependent on oil as a source of revenue. Prominent among these countries are Qatar and the United Arab Emirates which have been transformed into major tourism and business hubs while Saudi Arabia is currently making a lot of efforts to reform the country to make it more attractive to tourists and investors.
In Africa where our leaders are less visionary, little is being done to prepare for a future when oil will lose its relevance but luckily for some African countries, Lithium and other mineral resources that are used in the production of batteries for EVs are abundant in Africa and there is now an agitation in Nigeria and other African countries that these resources must not be exported in their raw form but processed locally before export to add value to the local economy.
The increased demand for these resources used in the manufacturing of EV batteries has also led to an increased incidence of illegal miners who in turn fund local militias for protection and in the process increase the state of insecurity across several regions in Africa.
One thing is certain, over the next few decades as the demand for the world’s number one commodity, crude oil declines and the world adapts to the use of alternative sources of energy to power their homes, vehicles, factories, and offices, the dynamics of the global economy are going to shift and it is only the countries that are best prepared for these changing dynamics that will emerge on top.
Oshobi, a development economist, management consultant, and author writes from Lagos, Nigeria.