In February 2022, Russian forces launched a full-scale attack against Ukraine in what was seen as a climax of hostilities against their western neighbour that had been going on since 2014. Among the reasons for the tensions between Russia and Ukraine was Ukraine’s increasing economic ties with the European Union (EU) and Russia being uncomfortable with the possibility of Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which Russia considered a threat to them.
Even though the European Union countries avoided getting directly involved in the war, they not only condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but they also offered support to Ukraine by providing economic, military, financial, and humanitarian aid worth almost $200 billion to them in addition to imposing sanctions against Russia and providing further support for Ukraine’s membership of NATO.
As a result of the sanctions against Russia especially in the area of energy which several European countries are heavily dependent on Russia for, energy costs went up significantly across many EU countries leading to concerns about the EU’s energy security given the fact that Russia is a major supplier of energy in the region.
The high energy costs led to higher production and distribution costs across Europe, pushing Europe’s inflation rate to a forty-year high by October 2022. As a result of the high inflation and Russian counter-sanctions, EU businesses in industries like agriculture, energy, finance, and manufacturing were badly hurt, resulting in Job losses across the region while consumers also felt the brunt.
Though not all EU countries fully implemented the sanctions against Russia, some of them did turn to other countries for their energy needs albeit at a higher cost. Amongst the countries that they turned to was the US which became the biggest supplier of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to the EU in 2022 as a direct fallout of the sanctions against Russia.
However, these alternative sources of LNG proved to be more expensive and less efficient to source as Russia had built pipeline infrastructure across the whole of Europe to make its LNG cheaper to distribute across the region. Also, there was additional pressure on EU governments as casualty rates went up during the cold winter months as a result of those who were not able to afford the high energy costs that were needed to adequately heat their homes during the period.
Owing to this, many European countries found it difficult to wean themselves of Russian gas despite the sanctions and as a result backdoor channels were opened by these countries to continue buying Russian gas for their energy needs.
However, it did come as a shock when data from Consultancy ICIS showed that Russian gas in May accounted for 15% of the total gas supply to the EU edging out the US as the biggest supplier of gas in the region and making a mockery of the sanctions imposed by the EU against Russia in the process.
It also revealed that despite all the support that they were giving to Ukraine to ward off the Russian aggression against them, they were inadvertently helping Russia to finance the war by remaining major buyers of Russian energy products which they have been unable to wean themselves of.
While Russia is rightly seen as the aggressor in this conflict, it is now clear that the EU is too dependent on them economically to be able to effectively impose sanctions against them and force them to withdraw their troops from Ukraine. It’s now obvious that they need to find other means of resolving the conflict. Going by the futility of the impact of sanctions against Russia in the EU’s bid to force them to stop the aggression against Ukraine, the time is ripe for the EU and its other Western allies to resort to diplomacy instead of taking sides if they are serious about ending the Russian/Ukraine war.
It’s time to call for a ceasefire and invite the warring factions to a table brokered by the United Nations to negotiate a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine to ensure lasting peace between both countries and avoid a further humanitarian crisis in a war that is inadvertently being funded those that oppose the war.
Oshobi, a development economist, management consultant, and author writes from Lagos, Nigeria.